The Minister of National Economy Timur Suleimenov reported on the updated forecasts of the main macro indicators for 2019–2023 and budget parameters for 2019–2021.
According to the ministry, the price of oil over the past two months shows significant volatility. In early October 2018 it was $86.2 per barrel. Nov. 23 the price of oil fell to $58.8 per barrel. The change was 32%.
“Taking into account the current situation in the world markets and the forecasts of international financial organizations, the forecast price for oil has been reduced from $60 per barrel to $55. Real GDP growth will be 3.8% in 2019. At the same time, the average annual GDP growth rate will be 4.1%,” Suleimenov informed.
Nominal GDP will grow from 64 trillion tenge in 2019 to 86.5 trillion tenge in 2023. Per capita GDP will be $9,400 in 2019, an increase to $12,100 in 2023.
Meanwhile, the manufacturing industry will grow by 4.1%, the mining industry — by 3%. A steady pace will remain in agriculture — 6.4%, the construction industry — 4.1% and trade — 4.4%.
“Exports will amount to $54.1 billion in 2019 with an increase to $65.7 billion in 2023. Import will be $32.9 billion in 2019 and will increase to $39.6 billion in 2023. Oil production has been maintained at 88 million tons in 2019, with an increase to 99 million tons in 2023,” said the minister.
As noted by Suleimenov, inflation is expected in the approved range of 4-6% in 2019, with a subsequent decrease to 3-4% in 2020–2023. Based on the adjusted macroeconomic forecast, budget parameters for 2019–2021 were revised.
“The revenues of the republican budget in 2019 are projected in the amount of 6.786 trillion tenge, in 2020 — 7.360 trillion tenge, in 2021 — 7.998 trillion tenge. The expenses of the republican budget were determined in the volume of 2019 to 10, 727 trillion tenge, in 2020 — 11.059 trillion tenge, in 2021 — 11.402 trillion tenge. The budget deficit in 2019 is planned at the 2018 level of 1.5% of GDP, with a subsequent reduction in 2020 to 1.4% of GDP and in 2021 to 1.3% of GDP,” reported Suleimenov.
The non-oil deficit will be reduced from 6.9% of GDP in 2019 to 5.3% of GDP in 2021. This is within the target values established by the Concept of the formation and use of funds of the National Fund. The currency assets of the National Fund will increase in 2019 from $63 billion to $67.4 billion in 2021
The Chairman of the National Bank of Kazakhstan Daniyar Akishev took part in the Government meeting in the video conferencing mode, and noted that the National Bank, in the face of declining oil prices, supports changes in forecasts of the republic’s socio-economic development for 2019–2023. The mid-term goal of the National Bank on inflation remains the level of about 4%. The risks of inflation going beyond the 2019 corridor remain. To prevent the inflation growth, further monetary policy tightening is possible. However, the base rate in real terms will not exceed the long-term growth rate of the economy.
“The National Bank of Kazakhstan will continue systematic work to improve and ensure the stability of banks. These measures, the implementation of the 7–20–25 Program and the provision of liquidity to banks within 600 billion tenge will contribute to the growth of banks' lending activity,” said Akishev.
Updated Socio-Economic Development Forecast for 2019–2023 was approved by the Government and submitted to the plenary session of the Senate of Parliament.
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