This week the Government approved the draft Strategic Development Plan of the Republic of Kazakhstan until 2025. Previously, all provisions of the document were widely discussed in the expert community. Expert Denis Krivosheyev shared his opinion on the objectives and reforms fixed in the Plan.

The Strategic Development Plan of the Republic of Kazakhstan until 2025 is approved by the government. According to the Minister of National Economy, Timur Suleimenov, the main goal of the plan is to ensure a qualitative and sustainable growth of the economy, and as a result, to achieve a standard of living comparable to that of the OECD countries. It is assumed that the economic growth in these years will be at the level of at least 4.5-5% per year, which will allow the growth of GDP per capita to $46 thousand.

In fact, the adoption of the document was marked by a surge of expert activity. Thus, former Vice Minister for Investments and Development, Rakhim Oshakbayev, said that in his memory

"for the first time in Kazakhstan, such an important document has been developed with the support of a wide Kazakhstani expertise. About 80 experts attended the discussions and were involved in the development of the strategy. In general, it does not cause any complaints."

Another expert, Olzhas Khudaibergenov, as he himself admits

"in this Strategy, he noted three key points for himself. The first is that massive digitalization of all processes and industries will be carried out. This should save considerable time for decision-making and raise labor productivity. The second is the substantial economic basis of the document, which is reflected through the growth of the share of the budget to GDP from 18 to 25% and the growth of lending in the national currency from 18 to 50%. In previous documents, there were no such indicators. The third point is that the document contains a section that presupposes a balanced development of the regions."

What kind of document is it that will radically change the economic situation in the country and which almost all the expert community supported?

The plan is part of the "Kazakhstan-2050" strategy and is intended to become the key to the system of state planning. The basis is a new model of economic growth, based on stimulating export-oriented production by increasing productivity, developing human capital and attracting private investment in the face of growing competition. Plus, it defines the leading role of the private sector, as well as unlocks the development potential of the country's regions.

In general, it is for all the good, against all the bad. After reading, there is a pleasant aftertaste, pure thoughts and understandable steps to achieve them. In principle, the whole civilized world is moving this way, so the program is a kind of fixation on the positive.

What is supposed to change? According to the authors of the program, a new state policy:

• demands the focusing on productivity and quality, technological orientation of people, enterprises and industries;
• defines competition as a growth stimulant, the predominant role of the private sector;
• activates the position of the regions and balanced regional development.

For this, three drivers or, growth catalysts are proposed. Growth in the productivity of existing industries through improving their efficiency, increasing production volumes with an export orientation and growth due to the formation of new high-performing industries.

The whole program is impregnated with symbolism, the frequent use of the number seven, sacred for Kazakhstan, implies that the authors, along with elaborating the results of reforms, which in themselves seem logical, were calling all the luck for help. Seven systemic reforms and seven priority policies.

The first is about human capital. Its essence is simple: education is the basis of economic growth. Here all aspects of the emergence of a successful person from birth to the onset of the age of economic efficiency. Quite logical, but in general there is a question about the prospects of the idea. Scientists still cannot find a correlation between education and personal success. Following the logic, all those who lived in the USSR should be successful in the first place, since they have a fairly good start in the form of fundamental knowledge obtained at schools and institutes, contributing to the building up of additional skills. But as the transformational change and the market showed, surviving and living are different concepts.

The world is changing rapidly and the labor market should itself, without state intervention, form a new culture. This is essentially an evolution, where everything is either all by itself or colossal money thrown away.

For example, it is believed that the country needs programmers and they need to be taught at the expense of the state, but even 15 years ago economists and lawyers were needed, and they were mercilessly bred in all institutes and universities, and now there is no demand for them. Moreover, as in other professions, there should be a true purpose everywhere. The most important goal of education is to give the ability to adapt, which primarily depends on the person himself, his desire and zeal.

The second reform is technological renewal and digitalization. It is believed that it is aimed at increasing the productivity of existing industries and the economy as a whole. Undoubtedly, new technologies are the way to success, although with basic skills and abilities. So, it is impossible to create spacecraft, if you cannot even build houses.

Advanced technology can really become the foundation for the emergence of new enterprises, but for this you must first come out of the Stone Age. You can argue as long as you like about the fourth industrial revolution, or the Industry 4.0, but it is important to understand what it is. What is the economy of large data, why is it needed, and what is the green economy, this is about reducing economic growth, combating excessive overproduction and through this, reduction in environmental impact.

The third reform is about competition, competitive business and the reduction of the role of the state in the economy. Here are the minimization of barriers, the simplification of the access to finance, and the increase in external competitiveness. After all, the state is an active player today, although its task is to provide favorable conditions for the market. Simply put, the state is an arbiter who withdraws part of the income in favor of the population, to solve social problems, but today it is also the main businessman. More than half of GDP is formed not by the private sector, and this is a great imbelence. Hence the talk about privatization, PPP, closing of unprofitable companies, living at the expense of the country — in general, the business needs to mobilize quickly.

Unfortunately, the program does not consider the special type of management that prevails in Kazakhstan. All resource enterprises, preserved after the collapse of the USSR, have a trans-regional status. They are built in such a way that their products can be delivered to various markets in sufficient and economically feasible volumes, whereas all new enterprises have a regional level. Their maximum capacity is comparable to the needs of the region and the available transport link, so any of them can be attributed to a small enterprise that is not able not only to compete, but also to produce a sufficient volume for export.

Yes, an important role in development will be played by the reduction of inspections announced in the program, weakening of supervision, but for a real push, more serious changes are needed. For example, the growth of domestic consumption. I think that science is not aware of any enterprise that immediately began as an exporter, except for resource companies. And neither affordable loans nor indulgences will have an effect, unless a complete cancellation of taxation, or the direct transfer of ready-made enterprises to a more convenient jurisdiction, but for this, the fourth reform called the "Rule of Law without Corruption" should be created.

This part is replete with the right thoughts about digitalization, reducing contacts, growing legal culture, and everything would be fine if it was not so difficult. The question of the necessary explanation remains open.

The remaining three reforms are about mentality. Strong regions and urbanization. The development of suburbs with a general policy of strengthening super-regions is not an easy task. Here one should give up part of the powers, strengthen the local executive power, allow the regional elites to emerge and give them some freedom of action, however, so that it does not violate the rules of unitarity, it is the balance and fine-tuning. Cities and towns are not only a loyal asset, which is collected by the local head of the region, there are many alternatives that need to be directed and encouraged.

The last two points of the program are related not entirely to the economy. Modernization of consciousness is an ideological task, although it directly affects all spheres of the social system. The main priority is the education of a pragmatic approach to the life, it is believed that this is the popularization of the image of a responsible independent and healthy citizen. Pragmatism, according to the authors of the program, means understanding the national and personal resources, effective expenditure, the ability to plan the future.

Kazakhstanis should be able to live rationally, be responsible for their own education, health and professional success. Although, the main task should be different. Pragmatism, this is a sober assessment of your place in the world, your personal abilities and adequacy of expectations.

Today the people are dominated by the ideology of paternalism and dependency, when the majority believes that the state should take care, give work, provide housing, issue social guarantees, constantly solve problems, while in exchange, nothing is supposed. Taxes are paid by no more than 20% of the population, and the idea of ​​rental exemptions when those who do not produce value added pay an increased tax is not accepted by the society.

So it's important to start with the sixth point, and the result should be the maturation of the society, in which everyone is independent, respects the laws and fulfills its obligations, also demanding this in return and from others. Then, maybe the seventh reform would not be needed, where the public sector should become the leader of change. After all, in the service of the people are the same people and if they are mentally adult, responsible, then everything — digitalization, process optimization, cost reduction, corruption — in itself will cease to be a problem.

Only personal responsibility, fear of justice, equality of all before the law, justice create the basis for the success of the country. Most of all, and at all times, a man yearned for justice. Building a state that strives to achieve a balance becomes an achievable task if people feel protected and at any moment have the right to a fair resolution of their disputes.

So the program 2025 is a good project, a road map on the way to balance. Its implementation will provide improvements, but the cardinal breakthrough does not depend on the state. Everyone can make the country better by simply knowing and obeying the laws, without leaving the tolerances for themselves. It is also not necessary to accelerate the natural development of entrepreneurship. The shopkeeper mentally would not become an industrialist, before that, it is necessary to grow, and then the best assistant is time and an open horizon.

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