Average annual growth of Kazakhstan economy in next 5 years forecasted at 5.8%

The Kazakhstan socio-economic development forecast for 2024-2028, as well as the parameters of the national budget and transfers from the National Fund for 2024-2026 years considered at the Government session of the Republic of Kazakhstan. 

Minister of National Economy Alibek Kuantyrov said that the forecast of development of the republic was formed taking into account the expectations of international financial organizations on the growth of the world economy and the conjuncture on foreign markets. Three scenarios are considered in total including basic, optimistic and pessimistic.

In the baseline scenario, it is proposed to take the average oil price at $80 per barrel. According to the forecast, the average annual GDP growth for 5 years will amount to 5.8%. Inflation is set at the level of 6-8% in 2024, 5.5-7.5% in 2025 with a subsequent decline to 5% in 2026-2028. 

Real GDP growth is projected to be 5.3% in 2024 with a further increase to 6% in 2028. Nominal GDP will grow from 135 trillion tenge in 2024 to 218.5 trillion tenge in 2028.

In general, growth is expected in all basic sectors of the economy. Thus, the average annual rate in industry will be 4%, including 4.9% in manufacturing and 3.1% in mining. The average annual growth in gross agricultural output will reach 4.5%. The projected growth in the construction industry will average 8.8%, in trade 7.4%.

The volume of exports is planned to reach $83.1 billion in 2024 with an increase to $94.8 billion in 2028, imports will grow from $60.7 to 65.6 billion. 

Deputy Prime Minister of the Republic of Kazakhstan – Minister of Finance Yerulan Zhamaubayev made a report on the draft national budget for 2024-2026. According to him, revenues in 2024 are projected at the level of 20.4 trillion tenge, and expenditures are planned with an increase of 1.5 trillion tenge in relation to 2023 to about 24 trillion tenge. The main share of budget expenditures falls on the social sphere.

Next year, transfers in the amount of 3.6 trillion tenge will also be attracted from the National Fund. These funds will be used to implement socially significant and important infrastructure projects. This concerns the modernization of roads, heat, gas and water supply networks, engineering networks, as well as the construction of social facilities under the national projects "Comfortable School" and "Modernization of Rural Health Care".

As Prime Minister noted, the presented draft national budget for the three-year period is primarily aimed at full and timely fulfillment of all social obligations of the state, as well as ensuring quality and sustainable development of the economy.

The guaranteed transfer from the National Fund has been determined taking into account the minimum oil price and will not exceed the volume of revenues from the oil sector. At the same time, the growth of budget expenditures will not exceed the average level of long-term economic growth, taking into account the inflation target.

"In general, the draft budget is balanced. As in previous years, it remains social. 9.9 trillion tenge is envisaged for the social sphere in 2024," Alikhan Smailov emphasized. 

Head of the Government pointed out that in the real sector of the economy the priority areas remain the development of manufacturing industry, business support, development of transport infrastructure and gasification.

"The expenditures of this block are planned in 2024 in the amount of 2.8 trillion tenge. We have a task to maximize the effective use of budget funds," he said. 

After the voting procedure on the submitted documents, Alikhan Smailov instructed to ensure the introduction of bills and the Forecast of socio-economic development in the Parliament of the Republic of Kazakhstan.

#Alikhan Smailov #The Prime Minister of the Republic of Kazakhstan #Economy #Government session #Inflation

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