In January-February 2022 foreign trade turnover of Kazakhstan increased by 52.5% — Ministry of National Economy

Government considered the results of the socio-economic development of the country and the execution of the republican budget for January-March of this year. At a meeting of the Cabinet of Ministers, chaired by Prime Minister Alikhan Smailov, reports were made by Chairman of the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan Galymzhan Pirmatov, Deputy Prime Minister - Minister of Finance Yerulan Zhamaubayev, Minister of National Economy Alibek Kuantyrov, Minister of Agriculture Yerbol Karashukeyev, Minister of Industry and Infrastructure Development Kairbek Uskenbayev, Minister of Energy Bolat Aqchulaqov.

So, according to the Minister of the Ministry of National Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan Alibek Kuantyrov, in January-March 2022, Kazakhstan’s economic growth accelerated to 4.4%. During the reporting period, according to the main trends, there is an acceleration of growth in the real sector, a gradual increase in exports, and stable dynamics in the service sector.

Growth in the real sector amounted to 5.9%. Business activity in the services sector increased to 2.8%.

“Among the industries, transport and warehousing, construction, trade, water supply, manufacturing, information and communications, mining, and agriculture are showing positive growth. The growth rate of investment in fixed assets amounted to 1.5%,” he said.

The growth dynamics of investments in fixed assets, excluding the mining industry, amounted to 0.6%.

Investments grew in construction by 2.2 times, education — by 2.2 times, public administration and social security — by 79%. In the regional context, the best indicators are noted in the city of Shymkent, as well as in Akmola and Pavlodar regions.

In January-February of this year, foreign trade turnover increased by 52.5% and amounted to $18.2 billion. Including the export indicator increased by 71% and amounted to $12 billion. At the same time, the export of processed goods increased by 47% to $3.5 billion Imports of goods amounted to $6 billion. Overall, the positive trade balance amounted to $6 billion.

The manufacturing industry maintains a steady growth trend. In January-March of the current year, the volume of production increased by 6.5%.

Positive growth was noted in all regions. The largest increase is noted in the city of Almaty, as well as in the North Kazakhstan and Atyrau regions.

In the context of manufacturing industries, a dynamic growth in the production of engineering products was ensured — by 11%, including the automotive industry — by 14.8%, the production of railcars and locomotives — by 13.3%, building materials — by 12.4%, finished metal products — by 11%, plastic products — by 15.2%, pharmaceutical products — by 18%, beverages — by 19%, clothing — by 13%.

In the mining industry, the volume of production increased by 6.1%. In terms of industries, production increased in the provision of services in the mining industry — by 17.1%, gas extraction — by 8.2%, crude oil extraction by 7.6%, extraction of other minerals — by 6.3%, in the extraction of metal ores and coal — by 1.9%.

“In the noted period, the construction sector demonstrates high growth rates and the volume of completed construction work increased by 8.6%. Positive growth of the indicator was recorded in 14 regions. The greatest growth in construction and installation work is noted in the city of Almaty, as well as in Akmola and Kostanay regions,” said Kuantyrov.

Compared to January-February of the current year, the growth dynamics of housing commissioning improved by 7.7 percentage points. and for the first time since the beginning of the year went into the positive zone. A total of 2.9 million sq. m of housing, which is higher than in January-March of the previous year by 0.4%. Positive dynamics was recorded in 15 regions. The highest rates are observed in Turkistan, West Kazakhstan and East Kazakhstan regions.

In agriculture, in the reporting period, the gross output of agricultural products increased by 1.8%. Growth in production in the industry was recorded in 14 regions. The greatest growth was shown by Mangystau, North-Kazakhstan and East-Kazakhstan regions. A decrease in the indicator is observed in Kostanay, West Kazakhstan and Pavlodar regions.

The general situation in the regional context in terms of 7 economic indicators is as follows. For all indicators, positive growth is noted in 6 regions — Akmola, Almaty, East Kazakhstan and Zhambyl regions, as well as in the cities of Nur-Sultan and Shymkent.

According to 6 indicators, growth is observed in 6 regions. These are Atyrau, Karaganda, Kostanay, Kyzylorda, Mangistau and North Kazakhstan regions. According to 5 indicators, positive growth is observed in 4 regions - the city of Almaty, as well as in Aktobe, Pavlodar and Turkestan regions. According to 4 indicators, positive growth is observed in the West Kazakhstan region.

Central and local executive bodies are invited to focus on the following activities:

  • providing comprehensive support for the effective implementation of spring field work, ensuring the planned growth rates in the manufacturing industry;
  • conducting constant monitoring of prices for socially significant food products, ensuring their availability through stabilization funds;
  • activation of real work to attract and support investors at all levels;
  • ensuring stability in the labor market as part of the implementation of programs to support permanent and temporary employment;
  • support for exporters to enter new markets, the formation of alternative routes for export directions.

According to the head of the department, the full implementation of the above measures will ensure the acceleration of the country's economic growth.

In March this year inflation in Kazakhstan reached a record high against the backdrop of the realization of geopolitical risks

Further, the Chairman of the National Bank Galymzhan Pirmatov made a report.

He said that in March this year, in Kazakhstan, high volatility in the financial markets persisted.

Against the background of the escalation of the geopolitical situation and the tightening of monetary policy, there is a flight to defensive assets. Thus, the US dollar index against the currencies of developed countries strengthened by 2.8%.

In Kazakhstan, the business activity index moved into the negative zone of 48.3 in March this year. (in February - 50.6). Prices for raw materials and materials in Kazakhstan rose rapidly due to logistical disruptions due to sanctions against the Russian Federation.

A record increase in prices for vegetable oils (by 23.2% per month) and cereals (17.1%) in March of this year. under the influence of a reduction in the volume of export deliveries against the background of the conflict between Ukraine and the Russian Federation led to the highest level of the FAO food price index for the entire existence of the index - since 1990 (159.3 points, which is 17.9 points (12.6%) higher February value).

According to Pirmatov, against the backdrop of rising prices for raw materials, fuels and lubricants, gas, inflation in the Eurozone in March, according to preliminary data, accelerated to 7.9%, in the USA it reached 40-year highs of 7.9% in February this year in Russia, inflation accelerated to 16.7% in March.

The external inflationary background for Kazakhstan will be unfavorable this year. due to the realization of geopolitical risks along with continued supply chain problems, rising food and raw material prices, and depreciation.

Taking into account the strengthening of pro-inflationary risks, developed countries, in particular the United States, are moving to an accelerated tightening of monetary policy.

Inflation in Kazakhstan in March this year peaked since September 2016, accelerating from 8.7% to 12% over the month.

The greatest contribution to inflation was made by food products, the growth of prices for which accelerated from 10% to 15.4% (inflation rose by 5.8% over the month). A significant annual increase in prices was noted for the following goods: white cabbage, sugar, potatoes, tomatoes.

Prices for socially significant food products following the results of the fourth week of March this year. (March 24-29) rose to 18.6% in annual terms. To a large extent, the boom in demand for certain food products in the second week of March contributed to this growth. The weekly increase in prices for socially significant food products is stabilizing, amounting to 1.3% in the last week of March, and 0.9% in the first week of April.

Prices for non-food products were under pressure due to the depreciation of the exchange rate and, in part, less pronounced than in food, rush demand, rising in price from 8.6% to 10.9% in March. Prices for paid services accelerated from 7.1% to 8.3%, which is associated with an increase in prices for a number of market services.

“Taking into account the strengthening of pro-inflationary risks, the inflation forecast is being revised upwards. The Government and local executive bodies are required to take preventive measures and prevent seasonal price increases. It is important to keep the issue of security of the socially significant food products in the country under constant control, organizing interregional flows in a timely manner, taking into account the needs of the regions. In order to prevent unreasonable price increases, it is necessary to effectively monitor compliance with the retail markup,” Pirmatov noted.

In March, the realization of geopolitical risks and the unprecedented volatility of the Russian ruble exchange rate put pressure on the tenge. On March 16, the tenge rate reached 512.17 tenge per US dollar at the exchange auctions. To limit financial stability risks, the National Bank carried out foreign exchange interventions on certain days, the volume of which in total for March this year was amounted to $990.5 million.

The tenge was also supported by the sale of the NF for transfers to the budget in the amount of $891 million, and the sale of a part of the foreign exchange earnings of the subjects of the quasi-public sector in the amount of $233.4 million.

The tenge exchange rate in March restored a significant part of the decline and appreciated by 5.7% over the month to 467.03 tenge per US dollar. The national currency rate continued to strengthen in early April - to the level of 449.63 on April 11 this year.

Gross international reserves as of March 31 this year amounted to $85.9 billion.

The NBK's gold and foreign exchange assets amounted to $33.2 billion, having decreased by $1.2 billion since the beginning of the year due to foreign exchange interventions, a decrease in balances on second-tier banks' accounts and payments on external debt.

The assets of the National Fund amounted to $52.7 billion. To allocate transfers to the republican budget in the amount of 1,036 billion tenge for the first quarter of this year. $2.1 billion worth of foreign exchange assets were sold.

Against the background of a significant increase in oil prices, receipts to the National Fund since the beginning of the year amounted to 1,059 billion tenge, an increase of almost 4 times compared to the same period last year, incl. foreign exchange earnings amounted to $1.9 billion or 845 billion tenge in equivalent.

The profitability of the National Fund from the beginning of its creation to March 31, 2022 in annual terms is 3.45%. Profitability for the last 5 and 10 years in annual terms amounted to 3.41% and 2.09%, respectively.

UAPF pension assets amounted to 13 trillion tenge. The volume of investment income since the beginning of this year. amounted to about 304.9 billion tenge, pension contributions - 383.7 billion tenge, pension payments - 64.5 billion tenge.

Since February 2021, the number of executed applications for early withdrawal of pension savings has amounted to 1.7 million in the amount of 3.4 trillion tenge, of which 3.1 trillion tenge (91.2%) is related to housing issues.

The profitability of pension assets for the last 12 months amounted to 10.4%.

Deposits in the banking system since the beginning of this year. increased by 2.3% to 27.7 trillion tenge, incl. deposits of legal entities - by 2.1% to 14.1 trillion tenge, individuals - by 2.5% to 13.6 trillion tenge.

Deposits in the national currency decreased by 1.5% to 17.1 trillion tenge (due to legal entities) with an increase in foreign currency deposits by 8.9% to 10.6 trillion tenge (mainly due to the retail sector).

As a result, the dollarization of deposits in February amounted to 38.4% (mainly due to the revaluation of the exchange rate) (in December 2021 - 36%, in January of this year - 35.6%).

The National Bank monitors the development of the situation and their impact on the markets in real time, assesses the degree of impact of sanctions on the financial system of Kazakhstan and will continue to take measures to ensure financial and price stability.

Income plans are overfulfilled in all regions, with the exception of the Mangystau region - Zhamaubayev

Finance Minister Yerulan Zhamaubayev reported on the execution of the republican budget. Thus, according to the Ministry of Finance, the performance of public finances in the first quarter of this year was as follows.

The state budget received revenues in the amount of 3 trillion 739 billion tenge, or the plan was fulfilled by 107.1%. More than 2.6 trillion tenge was received in the republican budget or the plan was fulfilled by 100.7%.

The revenue plan was overfulfilled by 17 billion tenge, of which taxes - by 5 billion tenge, non-tax - by 12 billion tenge. The bulk of tax overfulfillment is accounted for by CIT, ETP on crude oil, gambling business tax and MET.

The factors for overfulfillment of the CIT plan are:

  • increase in the amounts of declared advance payments in the 1st quarter of this year. in comparison with the 1st quarter of the last year for 653 large taxpayers by 83.5% or 211 billion tenge;
  • ongoing tax administration measures in relation to large mining and metallurgical companies.

In general, as a result of the administration of subsoil users, an additional 288 billion tenge was received into the budget, of which 29 billion tenge was due to the collection of additional amounts accrued based on the results of inspection reports.

“The overfulfillment of the ETP plan for crude oil is mainly due to the increase in the 1st quarter of this year of the rate for crude oil by 33%, as well as the depreciation of the tenge against the US dollar,” said Zhamaubayev.

The gambling business tax plan was overfulfilled due to the repayment of debts under tax audit reports. Overfulfillment of the MET plan was affected by an increase in prices for the 1st quarter of this year compared to the same period in 2021 for the main export positions by an average of 20%. Also, according to the results of the tax administration of subsoil users, about 16.5 billion tenge was received. Meanwhile, the plan was not fulfilled according to VAT on TVP and customs duties allocated by the Russian Federation.

The revenues of local budgets were executed by 125.7% and amounted to 1 trillion 125 billion tenge. The plan was overfulfilled by 230 billion tenge, including taxes - by 203 billion tenge.

Revenue plans were overfulfilled in all regions, with the exception of the Mangystau region.

State budget expenditures were executed by 99%, republican - by 99.5%, local budgets - by 98.8%. According to the republican budget, expenditures were made in the amount of about 4 trillion tenge. The default amounted to 20 billion tenge, of which 5 billion tenge was savings. Not mastered - 15 billion tenge.

The largest amounts of non-development were formed in the ministries of health, culture and sports, foreign affairs and ecology, geology and natural resources of the Republic of Kazakhstan.

The main reasons for non-disbursement: lengthy procedures for concluding contracts, absence or failure to submit documents confirming the validity of the payment, late submission of invoices for payment to the treasury authorities, untimely submission of acts of work performed, invoices, failed public procurement tenders, lack of need to spend funds in the reporting month.

Local budget expenditures amounted to 1 trillion 855 billion tenge. Not fulfilled - 22 billion tenge.

This year, the regions are provided with targeted transfers in the amount of almost 2.6 trillion tenge. As of April 1, they were allocated 490 billion tenge. Of these, 99% have been mastered. Not executed - 5 billion tenge, including savings - 2 billion tenge, not disbursed - 3 billion tenge. The greatest non-development has developed in the following regions: in the city of Almaty, Aktobe, Mangystau and Turkistan regions.

For 3 months of this year Desk control covered about 186 thousand public procurement procedures in the amount of about 3.2 trillion tenge.

Based on the results of inspections, violations were found in 9,912 procedures, of which 90% of notifications on the elimination of violations were executed by state audit facilities.

More than 500 audit events were carried out. The audit covered about 1.5 trillion tenge of budget funds. Financial violations for 39 billion tenge were established. Violations were eliminated by 33 billion tenge by restoring the supply of goods, the provision of services and the performance of work, reimbursement to the budget and reflection in accounting. More than 400 recommendations were given to improve and increase the efficiency of the audited objects.

Comprehensive privatization plan for 2021-2025. implementation of 721 objects is envisaged. During the reporting period, out of a total of 670 objects, 228 objects worth 60 billion tenge were sold and transferred to trust management with the right to subsequently buy out. 74 properties are up for auction. 52 objects were sent for reorganization and liquidation. 316 objects are to be realized.

Growth in production of meat, milk and chicken eggs is noted in Kazakhstan

Head of the Ministry of Agriculture Yerbol Karashukeyev reported on the situation in agriculture. For 3 months of this year the volume of gross agricultural output increased by 1.8% and amounted to 700.3 billion tenge. This growth was achieved mainly due to a 2% increase in livestock production.

“There was an increase in the production of meat in live weight by 1.2%, milk by 1.3%, chicken eggs by 11.6%. At the same time, crop production was produced in the amount of 42.8 billion tenge, the IPV was 100%. This volume is provided by growing crops in greenhouses,” the head of the Ministry of Agriculture noted.

In the context of the regions, the rates are higher than the republican ones in 6 regions.

Food production for the specified period increased by 3.8% and amounted to 607.8 billion tenge.

At the same time, there is an increase in the production of processed and canned vegetables by 1.8 times, flour - by 23%, fresh, chilled or frozen fish - by 21.5%, cereals - by 8.3%, sausages - by 7.8 %, pasta - by 5.3%, dairy products - by 2.6%. The volume of investments in fixed assets in food production increased by 35.8% and amounted to 34.1 billion tenge.

Positive dynamics of transit container traffic continues

Minister of Industry and Infrastructure Development Kairbek Uskenbayev reported on the dynamics in the industry.

According to the results of the 1st quarter of 2022, a positive trend is observed in the manufacturing industry with a total indicator of 106.5%.

“The engineering industry shows stable growth at the level of 11.3% due to the production of vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, machinery and equipment, the production of other vehicles, computers, electronic and optical equipment, electrical equipment, repair and installation,” said Uskenbayev.

In non-ferrous metallurgy, IPV amounted to 106.1%. The increase was due to the growth in output of refined copper, gold bullion, cathode copper, and refined gold.

In ferrous metallurgy, the volume of production increased by 1.9%. The volumes of production of steel, cast iron, rebar, rails, shaped steel, ferrosilicon and steel pipes have been increased.

The production of building materials amounted to 112.4% due to an increase in the production of heat-insulating materials, concrete products, ready-mixed concrete, bricks and mortars.

The output of the chemical industry increased by 7.8%. The volumes of production of yellow phosphorus, phosphorus-potassium fertilizers, feed tricalcium phosphate, ammonium nitrate, liquid ammonia, nitric acid, sodium hydroxide in solution and chlorine were increased.

In the light industry, growth by 10.6% due to an increase in the production of textiles, clothing and leather products.

During the reporting period, the IFO of the transport industry amounted to 109.3%. The positive dynamics in transit container traffic continues in the amount of 262 thousand TEUs, the growth amounted to 7%. The volume of cargo transportation by all modes of transport amounted to 849.2 million tons, an increase of 4.1% in the same period of the previous year.

The volume index for construction in January-March 2022 amounted to 108.6%. Positive dynamics is observed in 13 regions, with the exception of Turkistan, Aktobe, Pavlodar and North Kazakhstan regions.

For housing construction for the 1st quarter of this year. put into operation 2,878 thousand sq. m. meters of housing, which is 100.4% compared to the same period in 2021. To date, a total of 23,330 dwellings have been commissioned throughout the republic.

An increase in the volume of housing commissioning compared to the same period in 2021 is noted in 15 regions. This year it is planned to build 15.1 million square meters of housing.

400 thousand tons of diesel fuel at a price of 212 thousand tenge/ton were allocated to agricultural producers for the timely and stable conduct of spring field work

Head of the Ministry of Energy Bolat Aqchulaqov reported on the situation in the oil and gas sector. During this period, the oil industry has seen growth in terms of oil production and export. According to operational data, the volume of oil and condensate production for January-March of this year. amounted to 22.7 million tons or 107.6% compared to the same period in 2021.

Including for large companies in the oil and gas industry:

  • 7.3 million tons of oil were produced at Tengiz during the specified period;
  • oil production at Kashagan amounted to 4.7 million tons.
  • the indicator of the Karachaganak project amounted to 3.2 million tons.

During the reporting period, 17.6 million tons of oil were exported, which is 5.3% more compared to the same period in 2021.

Speaking about the gas industry, during the reporting period, 15 billion m3 of gas was produced, showing an increase of 8.2% compared to the same period last year.

The volume of domestic consumption of commercial gas amounted to 6.7 billion m3, this indicator was fulfilled by 100.9% compared to the same period last year. At the same time, due to the increase in domestic consumption, a decrease in gas exports is observed. Thus, during the reporting period, 1.4 billion m3 of commercial gas was exported, which is 66.7% compared to the same period last year.

The volume of production of liquefied petroleum gas amounted to 717 thousand tons, which is 87.1% compared to the same period last year. The reason for lagging behind last year's figures was the decline in production at the Tengizchevroil plant due to the unstable situation of exports to Ukraine.

In general, today the rest of the plants produce liquefied gas for the domestic market in the regular planned mode.

According to the results of January-March of this year. about 3.4 million tons of oil products were produced, or 107.5% compared to the same period last year, including:

- the indicator for motor gasoline amounted to 1.2 million tons, compared to last year - 102.9%;

- the volume of diesel fuel production amounted to 1.2 million tons, compared to last year - 110.5%.

“Today, there is a joint order of the ministries of energy, finance and the National Security Committee, under which a ban on the export of gasoline, diesel fuel and other certain types of oil products by road outside the country has been introduced and the issue of an extension for another 6 months is being worked out. In addition, as part of the message of the President to the people of Kazakhstan dated March 16 this year. 'New Kazakhstan: the path of renewal and modernization' work will be carried out to provide farmers with the necessary volume of fuel and lubricants at affordable prices. Today, 400 thousand tons of diesel fuel have already been allocated to agricultural producers for the timely and stable conduct of spring field work at a price of 212 thousand tenge/ton at oil refineries (176 tenge/liter), which is lower than retail prices by an average of 15-30 % depending on the region,” the head of the Ministry of Energy informed.

Further, the indicator for aviation fuel amounted to about 170 thousand tons, with an increase of 29.3% compared to the same period last year.

As for the production of fuel oil, its figure is 750 thousand tons or 108.5% compared to the same period last year. In addition, the volume of petrochemical products amounted to 82.4 thousand tons, which is more than 2 times higher than in the same period last year.

During the reporting period, 30.8 billion kWh of electricity was generated, which is equal to the figures for the same period last year - 100%.

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