In the oil industry at the end of 2021, oil production is expected to reach 85.7 million tons — Ministry of Energy

At the government session chaired by Prime Minister Askar Mamin, issues of development of the energy sector of Kazakhstan were considered. Minister of Energy Magzum Mirzagaliyev, Chair of the Board of SWF Samruk-Kazyna JSC Almasadam Satkaliyev, akims of Zhambyl region Berdibek Saparbayev, Karaganda region — Zhenis Kassymbek presented their reports.

Minister of Energy Magzum Mirzagaliyev reported that in the oil industry by the end of 2021, oil production is expected to reach 85.7 million tons, export — 67.6 million tons.

According to the plan, oil production in the country will grow and will reach 104.2 million tons by 2030.

Achievement of the target for oil production will be ensured through the following projects:

  • a future expansion project at TCO, thanks to which oil production will be increased by 12 million tonnes a year;
  • a project to maintain the production shelf of the Karachaganak field, thanks to which oil production will remain at the level of 11-12 million tons a year;
  • construction of gas processing plants at the Kashagan field will make it possible to produce 3 billion cubic meters of marketable gas and increase oil production from 16 to 20 million tons a year;
  • work has begun on the project for the development of the Khazar and Kalamkas-Sea fields in the Caspian Sea, which will allow the production of 4 million tons of oil per year from 2028.

At the end of 2021, the volume of oil refining is expected to reach 17.1 million tons, the production of petroleum products — 13.1 million tons.

Of the main types of petroleum products, according to the results of this year, gasoline production is projected at 4.7 million tons, diesel fuel — 4.8 million tons, fuel oil — 2.4 million tons, bitumen — 933 thousand tons and jet fuel — 600 thousand tons.

At the same time, from August to October 2021, there is a shortage of diesel fuel on the market of fuels and lubricants.

To provide the domestic market with diesel fuel, the following measures were taken:

  • a ban was introduced on the export of petroleum products by road;
  • scheduled repairs at Atyrau Refinery were postponed to 2022;
  • repairs at Pavlodar Oil and Chemistry Plant were shifted from September to November of this year;
  • import of diesel fuel from the refineries of the Russian Federation in the amount of 281 thousand tons was carried out.

Thanks to promptly taken measures, the situation on the diesel fuel market was stabilized.

According to Mirzagaliyev, a number of measures are planned to further increase production, both in the short and medium term.

At the Shymkent plant in 2022, it is planned to increase the load by 800 thousand tons.

At the Pavlodar oil refinery until 2025, a project for the reconstruction of a hydrotreating unit with the integration of a dewaxing unit will be implemented, which will increase the productivity to 6 million tons. and to produce 160 thousand tons of winter diesel fuel, which has not been produced before.

The modernization of the bitumen production unit at the Aktau bitumen plant will increase the production capacity from 400 to 450 thousand tons per year.

In addition, private investors are implementing projects for the construction of oil refineries in the Turkistan region, which are planned to be completed in 2023:

Standart Petroleum & Co LLP with a processing capacity of 2 million tons of oil;

LLP Standard Resources with a processing capacity of 100 thousand tons of coal with the production of synthetic oil and further production of petroleum products.

In the gas industry, by the end of this year, sour gas production is expected at 54 billion m3, commercial gas production — 29.4 billion m3, export — 7.7 billion m3.

“The implementation of projects at the Karachaganak, Kashagan and Tengiz facilities, as well as the timely commissioning of new promising fields will allow increasing the production of raw gas by 2030 to 87.1 billion m3. Along with the increase in sour gas production, an increase in the production of marketable gas is also expected,” the Minister of Energy said.

Due to the development of 7 new fields: Urikhtau Central, Prorva Zapadnaya, Pridorozhnoe, Anabai, Rozhkovskoe, Ansagan, Tokorevskaya group, as well as the construction of gas processing plants at Kashagan and Zhanaozen, the production of commercial gas will be increased to 42.2 billion m3 by 2030.

Over the past 5 years, the amount of allocated funds has been increased 5.4 times, which made it possible to increase the country's gasification level by 8%.

In 2021, according to the budget program of the Ministry of Energy, local executive bodies were allocated funds from the republican budget in the amount of 51.3 billion tenge for the implementation of 146 projects.

It is planned to use the allocated funds to complete 46 projects this year and, accordingly, to build 1.8 thousand km of gas networks, which will make it possible to achieve a gasification level of the country of 55%. Thus, 10,388 thousand people will have access to gas.

To date, the northern and eastern regions of our country remain not supplied with gas.

At present, the following options for gas supply to these regions are being considered, namely:

- continuation of the Saryarka main gas pipeline

or

- construction of main gas pipelines from the Russian Federation.

Also, to cover the growing demand of consumers for natural gas, projects for the construction of a gas transmission system are at various stages, such as:

  • construction of the second string of the Beineu-Bozoi-Shymkent gas pipeline;
  • construction of the second string of the Beineu-Zhanaozen gas pipeline;
  • construction of the third line of the gas pipeline branch from the Bukhara-Ural gas pipeline and others.

Accelerated gas supply will make it possible to provide natural gas to 11.05 million people of the country by 2025, and by 2030 — 13.5 million people, or 65%.

As Mirzagaliyev emphasized, by the end of 2021, the volume of production of petrochemical products is expected to be at the level of 190 thousand tons, the decrease in production is associated with unscheduled shutdowns of Atyrau Refinery LLP.

According to the ministry's plan, it is expected to increase the volume of production of petrochemical products by 2025 to 2 million tons, and by 2030 to 3.4 million tons. To date, a plant for the production of octane-increasing additives with a capacity of 57 thousand tons and polypropylene with a capacity of 81 thousand tons has already been commissioned in Shymkent.

In 2022, it is planned to commission a polypropylene plant with a capacity of 500 thousand tons / year.

In addition, a number of large projects will be implemented in the petrochemical industry, in particular for the production of polyethylene and butadiene.

“For the polyethylene project, agreements have been signed today on the basic terms of cooperation with a strategic investor. On the butadiene project in May of this year, the Agreement on joint implementation of the project was signed with PJSC TATNEFT as a strategic partner. The feasibility study of the project is being developed. The implementation of these projects will allow attracting about $8.6 billion of investments to the economy of Kazakhstan,” the head of the department informed.

At the end of 2021, electricity generation is expected to reach 112.3 billion kWh, consumption growth compared to 2020 was 6.3%.

At the same time, in October and November 2021, there was a deficit of electric energy in the amount of 0.25 billion kWh, which was covered by the energy sources of the Russian Federation.

By 2030, it is planned to increase electricity generation to 141.2 billion kWh.

Thus, in order to cover the needs of the economy in electricity, it is planned to commission 11 GW of generating capacities as part of the modernization of existing and construction of new power plants, as well as the commissioning of renewable energy sources.

As part of the development of the generation sector, it is planned to implement a number of projects for the commissioning and modernization of existing power plants.

First, the construction of a gas turbine unit with an electric capacity of 57 MW with a waste-heat boiler at the Aktobe CHP, worth 21.7 billion tenge.

Second, the restoration of power unit No. 1 with an electrical capacity of 500 MW at the Ekibastuz GRES-1, worth 110.5 billion tenge.

Third, the expansion and reconstruction of Ekibastuz GRES-2 with the installation of power unit No. 3 with a capacity of 636 MW, worth 450 billion tenge.

Based on the results of the implementation of these projects, by 2025 the commissioning of additional capacities for the total installed capacity of over 1,100 MW will be provided.

In addition, the issue of construction of units 4 and 5 at GRES 2 is being considered.

In accordance with the instructions of the Head of State in the southern zone of the Unified Energy System, it is planned to implement 7 projects to commission new flexible generation for a total total capacity of 3,050 MW by 2026. The total cost of these projects is 1.5 trillion tenge.

At the end of 2021, the share of electricity from renewable energy sources in the republic is expected to be 3.3%. This year, 19 facilities with a total capacity of 392 MW were commissioned, which made it possible to bring the existing renewable energy facilities to 134 units with a total installed capacity of more than 2 thousand MW.

By 2030, the share of renewable energy is expected to increase to 15%. To achieve the indicator, it will be necessary to additionally introduce about 7 GW of new capacities with an investment volume of more than 3 trillion tenge. In general, in the field of the fuel and energy complex, it is planned to implement 157 projects for a total amount of 29.8 trillion tenge. The Ministry will make every effort to fulfill the plans and achieve the goals within the framework of the commitments made.

The Chair of the Board of Samruk-Kazyna SWF JSC Almasadam Satkaliev reported on the implementation of projects in the fund's electric power industry.

So, according to him, over the past 11 months of this year, in comparison with the same period in 2020, the growth in consumption across the country averaged 6.9%, incl. 10.9% in the southern zone. At the end of October-November 2021, the export of electricity (trade with Kyrgyzstan) amounted to 131.5 million kWh, and the import of electricity (from the Russian Federation) to the UES of Kazakhstan amounted to about 250 million kWh.

“To cover the growing needs of the country's economy in electricity, it is necessary to immediately and large-scale development of generation, taking into account the growth of consumption in the long term. To solve this problem, the Fund has started to implement priority projects in accordance with the approved Roadmaps,” he said.

Among the projects:

  • modernization of the Almaty energy complex with the transfer of CHPP-1,2,3 to gas, incl. replacement of coal for gas at CHPP-2 and CHPP-3 (the total installed capacity will increase by 470 MW);
  • construction of a 1,000 MW CCGT unit in the Turkistan region;
  • restoration of unit No. 1 at Ekibastuz GRES-1;
  • construction of unit No. 3 at Ekibastuz GRES-2.

The total volume of domestic investment in these projects is 2 trillion tenge. It is also planned to implement projects together with foreign investors, primarily in the field of renewable energy: the construction of 2 GW SPP, 2 GW WPP and 1 GW CCGT with ADQ, 1 GW WPP by TOTAL EREN.

Generation development plans should take into account targets for reducing the carbon footprint. First of all, it is necessary to consider the possibility of building basic power sources in the Republic of Kazakhstan.

At the first stage, the basic power source can be located in the area of ​​Ulken settlement of Almaty region in a configuration of 2х1,200 MW with possible subsequent expansion. In subsequent years, it is proposed to consider the possibility of building basic power sources of 2x1,200 MW in the east (Kurchatov city) and 1,200 MW in the west of the country (at the MAEK site). The construction of a basic power source of 1,200 MW in the western zone will provide for the needs of the region in the long term.

Also, as Satkaliyev noted, taking into account the duration of the construction of basic sources of capacity, it is necessary to develop coal generation in the medium term, taking into account the replacement by alternative energy sources. Thus, it is possible to consider the construction of power units 4 and 5 at GRES-2 simultaneously with the implementation of the project for unit No. 3 at Ekibastuz GRES-2. This will allow adding more than 1,000 MW to the power system of Kazakhstan in the next 4-5 years.

In connection with the construction of these capacities, it is also necessary to build at least 5 GW of maneuverable capacities to enhance the reliability of the power system in Kazakhstan. In general, by 2035, to meet the growing needs for electricity and capacity, it is necessary to build about 12 GW of generating capacities, incl. due to alternative energy sources.

The need to develop the national power grid in the following areas requires special attention:

- modernization of the NPG in order to integrate the indicated significant inputs of generating capacities into the power system;

- ensuring stable and reliable operation of the system;

- exclusion of existing network restrictions, incl. by fulfilling the instructions of the President of the country on uniting the energy system of the western region with the UES of Kazakhstan, strengthening the electrical network of the southern zone in order to ensure energy independence from transit through the networks of neighboring states and creating conditions for the development of flexible gas generation in the southern zone;

- introduction of SMART GRID technology in order to increase the controllability, reliability and efficiency of the NPG.

At the end of 2021, the carbon footprint of the Fund group is projected at 57 million tonnes of CO2, of which about 49 million tonnes are direct emissions Coverage 1 and 8 million tonnes are indirect emissions Coverage 2. Taking into account the commissioning of new coal capacities to cover energy shortages, a peak is expected emissions by 2030-2032. A significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions will be possible by replacing the most outdated coal generation with new sources based on alternative fuels.

There are no large free gas fields in Kazakhstan. The gas resources available today are mainly associated gas from large oil and gas fields (Tengiz, Kashagan, Karachaganak), which is mostly injected back into the reservoir today. It is necessary to consider all the possibilities of gas processing instead of re-injection, taking into account the technological features of the fields.

For example, significant volumes of associated gas from the Kashagan field can be used for the needs of the country's economy, but such a solution requires the construction and commissioning of new gas processing plants in the period from 2024 to 2030 with a capacity of 6 to 12 billion cubic m / year as part of the expansion projects of the Kashagan gas utilization project — Phases 1, 2A and 2B. The implementation of such a project requires a significant investment of up to $12 billion, which requires additional investment.

For the further implementation of petrochemical projects for the production of polypropylene, polyethylene and butadiene, it is necessary to study the issue of providing these projects with raw materials from the Tengiz field after 2033. It is also necessary to consider the possibility of using additional volumes of gas at the Karachaganak field due to the increasing gas factor, taking into account the gas processing capacities available in the western region.

“Considering that the main gas consumers are located in the south of the country, it will also be necessary to build a second line of the BBSh gas pipeline with a capacity of up to 15 billion cubic meters. All these measures were included in the draft of the Comprehensive Plan for the Development of the Gas Industry of the Republic of Kazakhstan until 2030,” said the head of the Samruk-Kazyna Sovereign Wealth Fund.

In the oil sector, there is a significant decline in production, especially in the Aktobe and Kumkol groups of fields, which are the main suppliers of oil for the Pavlodar and Shymkent refineries. The observed growth in oil production is primarily associated with the development of the development of large fields — Tengiz, Kashagan and Karachaganak.

Given the current situation, it is necessary to start implementing a balanced exploration program aimed at finding new oil and gas fields, attracting funds from a wide range of investors and providing the necessary fiscal and non-fiscal measures of state support. In addition, in connection with the existing restrictions on the throughput of oil pipelines for the supply of oil from Western Kazakhstan in the eastern and southern directions, the question of expanding the oil pipeline system arises. First of all, a further increase in the capacity of the Kenkiyak - Atyrau oil pipeline in reverse mode, taking into account the throughput of the Kenkiyak - Kumkol - Karakoyin oil pipelines. This will make it possible to resolve the issue of long-term and reliable supply of domestic refineries with oil and, accordingly, the reliability of supplies of domestic oil products to the domestic market.

“The implementation of the above initiatives should be carried out on the basis of a long-term Comprehensive Program for the Development of Energy Sectors, incl. oil, gas, nuclear, electric and heat power engineering, renewable energy sources. Comprehensive sectoral plans should be developed after the approval of the long-term Comprehensive Program. Otherwise, all initiatives for the further development of the energy sector will be scattered and involve risks of unrealizability, taking into account the available and predicted resources of the country,” Satkaliyev said in conclusion.

Akim of the Zhambyl region Berdibek Saparbayev reported that the region has developed a plan for gas supply to the settlements in the region until 2025, where work is being carried out in accordance with the plan. In the Zhambyl region, out of 371 settlements, 257 or 88.6% of the population are provided with natural gas. In this year 10.8 billion tenge is provided for gasification of 25 objects. Of these, 17 projects will be completed this year, the remaining 8 projects are rolling over to 2022-2023.

By the end of the year, 16 thousand people in 20 settlements will be provided with natural gas. At the same time, for the gasification of 42 settlements, the construction of 3 automated gas distribution stations is being carried out.

For 2022, 8.7 billion tenge was allocated for the construction of 18 facilities. According to the results, 10 thousand people will be provided with natural gas in 17 settlements, according to the results the share of gasification of the region will reach 274 settlements or 89.5% in terms of population.

In the region, 17 facilities with a capacity of 387.8 MW produce electricity using renewable energy sources, where the region's share in the republic is 20%.

Zhambyl region ranks first in the republic in terms of the capacity of renewable energy sources. This year, one of the largest projects in the region was commissioned with a cost of 49 billion tenge. and with a capacity of 100 MW Zhanatasskaya wind power station.

The second stage of the hydroelectric power plant was also put into operation at the Tasotkel reservoir (9.2 MW). Taking into account the potential of the region, construction of several large projects has begun this year. In particular, the construction of wind power plants in the Sarysu region with a capacity of 100 MW is underway, in the Zhambyl region of a solar power plant with a capacity of 50 MW.

For 11 months of 2021, the region generated 2.6 billion kWh of electricity, of which 27% was produced by alternative energy sources. A forecast map for the development of renewable energy facilities until 2030 has been developed in the region, with the specification of the potential for installing solar, wind and hydroelectric power plants in the region. According to the plan, by 2030 the number of renewable energy sources will be increased to 32 facilities, the capacity will be 1.2 gigawatts.

In turn, Akim of the Karaganda region Zhenis Kassymbek reported that within the framework of the gasification of the Karaganda region, work was completed on the construction of gas distribution networks of the first start-up complexes in the cities of Karaganda, Zhezkazgan and Temirtau. In all three cities, the networks were transferred to the trust management of KazTransGas Aimak JSC. Construction work on the second start-up complex is at the stage of completion, which will allow connecting about 4 thousand houses.

Work continues on the construction of a supply gas pipeline to the city of Saran, 15 km of the 18 km of the gas pipeline have been assembled and built. The work is proceeding according to the schedule, there are no delays.

Also, contracts were concluded for the construction of gas supply networks in the Zhanaarka village of the Zhanaarka district, the Osakarovka village of the Osakarov district and in the city of Shakhtinsk.

ArcelorMittal Temirtau, the Ministry of Energy and KazTransGas signed a memorandum on the supply of natural gas in the amount of 300 million cubic meters per year.

The project involves the construction of a separate AGDS, a new boiler at the CHPP, replacement of liquefied gas at a hot rolling mill. Completion of gas supply to ArcelorMittal Temirtau is scheduled for October 2022, which will ensure a 30% reduction in emissions. A point of connection to a gas pipeline for a metallurgical plant has been issued for the Kazakhmys Corporation, construction work is nearing completion. The procedures for transferring documentation to KazTransGas Aimak are underway. Gas supply is planned for the 1st quarter of 2022. The volume of consumption will amount to 74.4 million m³ per year. Renewable and alternative energy is developing as one of the priority areas. Today in the region there are 8 installations of renewable energy sources with a total capacity of about 230 MW.

“For the current year, production amounted to 317.5 million kW / h, or 2.2% of the total electricity generation in the region. Until 2023, it is planned to implement 4 more projects with a total capacity of over 200 MW. The volume of investments for the planned projects is about 115 billion tenge. After the commissioning of the facilities, the total capacity of renewable energy sources in the region will be over 400 MW,’’ concluded the akim of the Karaganda region.

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